Inter-Ethnic Violence and Underdevelopment: A Case of Jonglei State and Greater Pibor Administrative Area, South Sudan By Dr. Fredrick Khamis Elias Gabriel

About This Research

Dedication

This work is dedicated in grateful and loving memory to my departed parents Gabriel Elias Dau and Hellen Kenyi Lojobe who were my first teachers about God, faith and life. To my deceased brothers Augustino, Angelo and sister Cicilia for their memories and intercession. To my wife Grace Cirillo and to my children Moses, Emmanuel, John, Flora, Winny and Gabriel who are the reason for my joy, happiness, and perseverance in life.

Acknowledgements

Special thanks to the late Prof. Dr. Samson Wassara for his foundational support, and to Prof. Dr. Leben Moro for his essential mentorship. Gratitude is also extended to the late Dr. Joseph Ochan, Dr. Valerian Orasio Loyalala, my family, the University of Juba staff, and especially Mrs. Rachel Mania. My deepest gratitude goes to the interviewees whose insights made this research possible.

Table of Contents

• Chapter 1: An Introduction to the Crisis

• Chapter 2: Understanding the Roots of Conflict

• Chapter 3: Behind the Research – The Methodology

• Chapter 4: The Findings – A Detailed Analysis

  • Part 4A: The People of the Conflict (Demographics)

  • Part 4B: The Economics of Violence

  • Part 4C: The Anatomy of the Conflict

  • Part 4D: The Disarmament Dilemma & The Search for Peace

• Chapter 5: The Path Forward – Conclusions & Recommendations

Chapter 1: An Introduction to the Crisis

Jonglei State and the Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA) represent a multi-ethnic region of South Sudan, home to groups such as the Dinka, Nuer, Murle, Kachipo, Anywak, and Jiel. The local economy is overwhelmingly agrarian, with over 80% of the population dependent on agro-pastoralism and pastoralism for their livelihoods.

This region is also one of the least developed in the world. Decades of civil war and marginalization have left it without basic infrastructure. The lack of functional roads means many areas become completely inaccessible during the rainy season, severely hindering timely security responses. This underdevelopment fuels persistent poverty. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 48% of the population in Jonglei State lives below the poverty line, and food insecurity is rampant, with an estimated 39% of people facing food insecurity and 30% facing severe food insecurity.

Cattle are central to the culture and economy, defining security and wealth for most households. However, this reliance on cattle is also a major source of conflict. The three largest ethnic groups—the Dinka, Nuer, and Murle—have a long history of cattle raiding and child abduction, which has intensified with the proliferation of small arms.

A significant historical event was the Jonglei Canal Project, a massive undertaking in the 1970s that was halted in 1983. The project, intended to divert the White Nile, was highly controversial. It displaced thousands, deprived communities of essential dry-season grazing land, and threatened to devastate the Sudd wetlands, a unique and vital ecosystem. Experts now agree the project would have been an ecological and agricultural failure, with opportunity costs estimated at $US 500 million.

The Evolving Nature of Violence

While inter-ethnic violence among pastoralist communities is not new, the conflict in the 21st century is fundamentally different from historical cattle raiding. What were once traditional, smaller-scale raids to replenish herds have evolved into large-scale, brutal massacres.

The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the second Sudanese civil war, paradoxically created a security vacuum that has contributed to this escalation in violence. Poor governance in a landscape of deep-seated poverty and underdevelopment has made it impossible to maintain stability and peace.

Chapter 2: Understanding the Roots of Conflict

Defining Conflict

At its core, conflict is a result of competitive striving for the same goals, rights, and resources. In the context of Jonglei and Pibor, this manifests as a struggle over economic resources (cattle, grazing land, water), power (political control), and values (cultural honor, revenge). Traditional cultures often see conflict as a communal concern, but the modern context has changed its nature. The combination of multiple causes—environmental scarcity, political manipulation, and cultural practices—has made the conflict particularly severe and intractable.

Theories of Ethnic Conflict

To understand why this violence aligns along ethnic lines, three major academic theories offer insight:

1. Primordialism: This theory views ethnicity as a deep, natural, and fixed identity based on shared ancestry, culture, and kinship ("blood ties"). From this perspective, conflict arises from ancient and powerful attachments that are slow to change.

2. Instrumentalism: This approach sees ethnicity as a flexible tool used by individuals and political elites. Leaders may manipulate ethnic symbols and grievances to mobilize followers, compete for state resources, and secure power for themselves and their group.

3. Constructivism: A middle-ground theory, constructivism argues that ethnicity is a social construction. It is not naturally fixed, nor is it completely malleable. Instead, it is shaped and reshaped over time by social interactions, history, and political circumstances.

Researcher's Insight: For the situation in Jonglei, a combination of the Instrumentalist and Constructivist approaches provides the most accurate lens. While deep cultural identities exist, they have been actively defined, politicized, and mobilized by various actors for strategic purposes, particularly in the competition for scarce resources and political power.

The Ethnic Security Dilemma

This concept is critical to understanding the cycle of violence. In a state of anarchy, where no reliable central government can provide security, any action one ethnic group takes to defend itself (like acquiring weapons) is perceived as an offensive threat by its neighbors. This triggers a dangerous spiral:

• Group A arms itself for defense.

• Group B sees this as a threat and arms itself in response.

• Mistrust and fear escalate, making pre-emptive attacks seem like the only rational option for survival.

• This becomes an "action-reaction" process of raids and revenge attacks.

The uneven disarmament campaigns after 2005, which primarily targeted the Lou Nuer while leaving the Murle armed, were a catastrophic trigger. It made the Nuer extremely vulnerable, confirmed their fears, and threw fuel on the fire of the security dilemma, leading directly to some of the most brutal cycles of violence in the post-CPA era.

Chapter 3: Behind the Research – The Methodology

The Blueprint: Our Research Design

To investigate this complex situation, we used a qualitative, descriptive survey design. This approach was chosen because our primary interest was understanding the reality on the ground—the views, feelings, and perceptions of the people living through this conflict. The qualitative method allows us to explore the thoughts, behaviors, and beliefs that quantitative data alone cannot capture.

Who Did We Talk To? The Target Population

Our target population included a wide cross-section of society to ensure a comprehensive view. We engaged:

• Political leaders (from SPLM and other parties)

• Community figures (chiefs, religious leaders, youth and women representatives)

• Local officials (from Counties and Payams)

• Educators (primary and secondary school teachers)

• Humanitarian workers (from international and local NGOs)

The Toolkit: Gathering the Data

With a sample size of 100 participants, we used three primary instruments:

• Questionnaires: Structured questionnaires with both closed and open-ended questions.

• Focus Group Discussions (FGDs): We conducted 15 FGDs with representatives from the Dinka, Nuer, and Murle communities to gather collective insights.

• Interviews: We conducted 15 face-to-face interviews with key informants for deep dives into specific topics.

Ensuring Accuracy: Validity and Reliability

To ensure our findings were trustworthy, we focused on two principles:

• Reliability: Our tools had to be consistent. We used a "test-retest" method to ensure they yielded the same type of results repeatedly.

• Validity: Our tools had to be accurate. All instruments were reviewed by academic supervisors and pilot-tested to correct any vague or confusing questions. The entire process was guided by strict ethical principles, guaranteeing voluntary participation and confidentiality.

Chapter 4: The Findings – A Detailed Analysis

Part 4A: The People of the Conflict (Demographics)

• Gender: The study's participants were predominantly male (90%), reflecting the patrilineal nature of the societies in the study area.

• Residency: The vast majority of participants were indigenous to the region, with 80% identifying as residents by birth. A significant number had lived in the region for a long time, with 32% having spent 6-10 years and 25% having spent 21 years or more.

• Age: The demographic data reveals a predominantly young society. A majority of respondents (58%) were young adults aged 18-35.

• Education: Most respondents (81%) had a foundational secondary-level education, but only 13% had completed university.

Researcher's Insight: The profile of our respondents is primarily indigenous young men with deep roots in the region. Their direct, lifelong experience provides crucial context, while the data on age and employment highlights the enormous pressure on a young, under-employed population.

Part 4B: The Economics of Violence

• Livelihoods: The economy is overwhelmingly tied to the land and livestock. Mixed farming (a combination of raising livestock and growing crops) is the most common activity, practiced by 62% of respondents. Formal employment (4%) and trade (3%) are nearly non-existent.

• A Cascade of Challenges: The region's economic potential is crippled by a set of interconnected challenges:

  • Insecurity: Constant cattle raiding, abduction, and violence disrupt all forms of economic activity.

  • Lack of Infrastructure: The absence of roads makes it impossible to transport goods, deliver aid, or for security to respond.

  • Environmental Crises: Increased droughts and floods intensify competition over scarce resources.

  • Governance Failures: High youth unemployment was cited in all focus groups as a direct cause of cattle raiding. This is compounded by corruption and a lack of government-led development.

Researcher's Insight: The economy is trapped in a vicious cycle. Underdevelopment and lack of opportunity fuel the violence, while the violence makes any meaningful development impossible.

Part 4C: The Anatomy of the Conflict

• A Volatile Landscape: An overwhelming 70% of respondents classified the region as "conflict prone."

• The Multifaceted Causes: The conflict is driven by a mix of factors: competition over natural resources (30%), political-based factors (29%), and cultural-based factors (18%), such as the high bride price demanded in cattle.

• The Key Actors: The youth (60%) are the primary combatants. As one community elder stated, "The combatant and the main actors are the youth... the rate of death when people were using the white weapon [spears] was not like the current situation where people kill themselves with arms." They are often mobilized and influenced by politicians (33%).

• The Gravity of the Situation: The conflict's factors were rated as "extremely serious" by 46% of respondents. In stark contrast, government provision of security was rated "not at all serious" by 47% of respondents, highlighting a massive governance and protection gap.

• Divisive Politics: A clear majority (68.2%) described the nature of politics in the region as "divisive," with people following politicians along tribal and clan lines. This is evidenced by incidents documented by Human Rights Watch of unlawful arrests of Murle civilians by security forces, deepening mistrust.

Part 4D: The Disarmament Dilemma & The Search for Peace

• A Deep-Rooted Mistrust: There is profound skepticism toward disarmament among all ethnic groups. The Murle showed the strongest opposition (40% rated it "very poor"), fearing it would leave them vulnerable. The Nuer also rated it poorly (45%), largely due to past experiences of biased, forceful disarmament.

• The Role of Government and NGOs: While the State Government showed moderate support for disarmament, the National Government was rated poorly (50%), suggesting a lack of political will from the top. The UN and INGOs were seen as the most supportive stakeholders (55% "very good").

• Missed Opportunities for Peace: Peace messaging is inconsistent. It happens "very often" in religious institutions (50%) and at funerals (30%), but "very rarely" at shopping centers (47%) and on public holidays (53%).

Researcher's Insight: Disarmament cannot succeed as a purely technical exercise. It fails because there is no trust. Communities will not give up their weapons until a neutral, reliable authority can guarantee their security. The Karamojong in Uganda, who traded guns for security and development projects, were cited as a successful model.

Chapter 5: The Path Forward – Conclusions & Recommendations

Conclusion: A Vicious Cycle

The research concludes that the inter-ethnic violence in Jonglei and Pibor is a direct result of a toxic, self-perpetuating cycle fueled by several key factors:

• Politicized Ethnic Identity: Ethnicity has been mobilized as a tool for political power and resource competition.

• Competition Over Scarce Resources: The struggle for water, grazing land, and cattle is a primary driver.

• Failure of Governance: A critical lack of state capacity to provide security and justice has created a culture of impunity.

• Pervasive Underdevelopment: Poverty and lack of opportunity, especially for youth, makes violence an attractive option.

In short, ethnic conflict is the single greatest obstacle to development in the region, and underdevelopment is a primary cause of the conflict. Breaking this cycle requires a deliberate, multi-faceted approach.

A Blueprint for Peace: Key Recommendations

• Governance, Security, and Justice:

  1. Establish Rule of Law: Build police stations in the counties, recruiting and training educated youth.

  2. Strengthen UNMISS: Empower the UN mission to act decisively to protect civilians.

  3. Comprehensive Disarmament: Implement a year-long disarmament process that pairs voluntary surrender with development incentives and is led by police, not the army.

  4. Prosecute Criminal Acts: Publicly condemn and prosecute killings, abductions, and cattle theft through formal courts.

  5. Combat Hate Speech and pursue a political culture of unity through true federalism.

• Economic Development and Infrastructure: 6. Empower the Youth: Create jobs and vocational training programs as a direct alternative to fighting. 7. Modernize Livelihoods: Train pastoralists and farmers in modern, sustainable techniques. 8. Build Infrastructure: Prioritize building roads, schools, and health facilities. 9. Provide Water Resources: Construct boreholes and troughs to reduce resource competition during droughts. 10. Conduct Proper Environmental Studies before resuming major projects like the Jonglei Canal.

• Society and Peacebuilding: 11. Address Gender Disparity. 12. Hold Peace Seminars, especially for youth and women. 13. Integrate Peace into the School Curriculum. 14. Use All Public Platforms (political rallies, holidays) to spread messages of peace and coexistence.

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